VINAIR PROJECT

Project Brief / Introduction:

Vietnam faces persistently extreme air pollution exposure, far exceeding WHO guidelines across many regions. However, the country still lacks national, disease-specific estimates of the health burden attributable to long-term PM2.5 exposure. At the same time, Vietnam is beginning to implement major air-quality interventions, such as Hanoi’s planned ban on fossil-fuel motorcycles starting in 2026, yet the evidence needed to set targets, prioritize actions, and evaluate potential health gains remains limited.

Existing evidence in Vietnam is largely fragmented, urban city-focused, or limited to mortality outcomes and standardized comparative risk-assessment approaches. In addition, there is scarce national evidence on the joint effects of ambient PM2.5 exposure and lifestyle risk factors, especially smoking, despite their high co-occurrence and relevance for NCD prevention.

This project addresses these gaps by integrating high-resolution, satellite-derived PM2.5 data, national disease-specific NCD/ARI statistics, and standardized national survey data to generate actionable estimates and long-term projections of PM2.5-attributable health burden. It also examines the interaction effects between air pollution and lifestyle risks, which can directly inform policy development. 

​The project findings will inform regional air-quality management, support the development and evaluation of green transition policies, and strengthen integrated NCD prevention strategies, while building national research capacity in environmental health impact assessment.

Project Objectives:

To estimate and project the national burden of major non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and acute respiratory infections (ARIs) attributable to ambient air pollution (PM2.5) exposure in Vietnam.

Specific objectives: 

• To estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) of incidence and mortality of major NCDs and ARIs attributable to ambient PM2.5 exposure in Vietnam in 2022-2023. 

• To project the PAF of incidence and mortality of major NCDs and ARIs attributable to ambient PM2.5 exposure in Vietnam for the years 2025–2050.

• To estimate the joint effects of ambient PM2.5 exposure and lifestyle risk factors (especially smoking) on the prevalence of several NCDs in Vietnam using the WHO STEPSwise Survey 2015.